Anyone who is interested in security politics will know that Britain was the country that prohibited the EU from integrating its military. The main reason was that Britain knew quite well it would lose a lot of influence in several security and military clubs (NATO, UN Security Council). The secondary and arguably even more of the reason was the US interest in keeping NATO the primary security council. Mainly to keep it’s influence in Europe and keeping China and Russia out of it.
Both China and Russia would make much more sense as partners for Europe; both are at least as predictable as the US. China is a huge untapped market and very interested in coexistence and collaboration, but you need to be a strong and willing to stand your ground partner to be successfull, and there need to be defenses in place to keep knowledge and not start selling it out. Russia, on the other hand, has vast space and lots of untapped resources, which both China and the EU will need. They also would be reachable via Land and are both bigger markets than the US, at least in potential.
But back to how Brexit opens new possibilities. The EU is finally noticing, it has all the cards in the Brexit negotiations. The result of this is that the UK would need to be willing to break apart (Scottland and later on London will break off) and utterly destroy what little of an industry is left (they can thank the Iron Witch for that), to “win” Brexit negotiations. The Uk will need to fold and become an associated state like Switzerland or Norway, which essentially will mean pay up, accept all the rules and have no say whatsoever.
However the EU realizing it has strength together, especially since the Uk is no longer a roadblock, will further political integration of the countries and people.
We already see this in the faster security initiatives and more rapid actions in the EU. But this is only the beginning. The strongest challenge for the EU will be now to implement more democracy, while at the same time keeping the populists like Trump and Brexiteers at bay. If it succeeds with this, we may just be witnesses of the next golden age for Europe, and Russia and China.
The new leading countries of this new Europe will be Germany as the intellectual and industrial powerhouse and France as the philosophical and military leaders of Europe. Germanies industrial capacities will profit from Brexit and France has been since the French revolution the political and philosophical leader of Europe, only contested by the British, who have removed themselves now from this equation. Germany will not take up a leading military role but is very happy to back up France in this.
We already have combined forces of German and French origin, and Germany is currently leading an initiative with the Netherlands and several eastern and mid-European countries to integrate resources and human resources.
The Southern European countries will be more than happy to follow suit as their finances depend on Germanies and Frances good grace, the eastern and mid-European countries have traditionally been close to Germany and still feel they need protection from Russia. Russias is not in contrast to a more integrated and powerfull European union. A more integrated EU will make negotiating easier and at the same time more independent from the USA. At the same time, a newly infused European industry will evolve away from the Anglo-American banking system has a much more robust economy and will also require lots of resources, of which Russia has an abundance and wants to sell this off. Also, Russia will become the transit country between China and Europe.
China, on the other hand, has no geostrategic interest in Europe, besides an economic one. China needs new and more diverse trade partners than the USA, which is becoming unpredictable and their money is toilett paper, of which China hoards a lot as they have forced themselves after years of being the USA’s workbench to pretend and accept as a currency of value.
So thank you Britain for stepping out of the way of a prosperous and golden future for the whole of Europe and Asia and its inhabitants. I wish you good luck with your Empire 2.0.
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